Updated Projections, with updated bid prices.
Sunday, March 14th, 2010 | Data, The Fantasy Baseball Blog, The Guide | No Comments
This year’s projection and bid update is now posted. Find the xls file here.
If you don’t have a spreadsheet, use Google Docs or Microsoft Live online spreadsheets to view the file.
Any questions about a player, please post them at pattonandco.com or email me at the address in the Editor’s Letter in the Guide. Thanks.
Notes on changes in the projections: Hitters
Thursday, February 11th, 2010 | Amplification, The Guide | No Comments
I’m working on updated projections, from those in the magazine. Here are some notes:
I liked Josh Bell as the Orioles’ third baseman this year, but the signings of Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada mean he’s going to start the year in the minors, and unless someone gets hurt or stinks up the joint he won’t get much PT until 2011.
I made John Mayberry a $1 pick in the Guide, and his power may make him worth owning at some point during the year, but his extreme problem making contact could keep him in the minors. He’s a longshot.
It seemed like Jed Lowrie would get all the playing time he was capable of, until the Red Sox signed Marco Scutaro. Now we not only don’t know how healthy Lowrie will be, but he’s blocked by a guy coming off a career year. If healthy Lowrie could push past Scutaro, but for now he’s knocked down a peg.
I still think Jordan Schafer is going to have some impact in Atlanta this year, but it doesn’t look likely at this point he’s going to have a job on opening day. So I’m cutting his projected AB a bit, and taking away his draft price.
Luis Durango has zero power but fantastic speed. Like Rajai Davis, perhaps, he’ll run as much as his playing time and ability to get on base allows, but his BA could range from .180 to .320 in what is likely to be a small sample. I’m optimistic, especially if he goes cheap.
Ramon Castro re-signing with the White Sox means his AB won’t be going up this year.
My assumption that Mike Carp would get a fair number AB in Seattle because he was an okay hitter and cheap flew out the window after the M’s shopping spree. At this point it’s hard to see how he makes the major league roster.
Angel Pagan is likely to be the Mets’ starting centerfielder on Opening Day, due to Carlos Beltran’s surgery, but he is expected to be come the fourth outfielder when Beltran returns, behind Beltran, Jason Bay and Jeff Francouer. I think that trio could provide plenty of opportunities for Pagan and Gary Matthews Jr. to play, but knocked down Pagan’s price because it isn’t obvious where the AB for him are.
I have a very aggressive projection for Michael Saunders in the magazine, and a modest price. The price reflects his problems laying wood on ball in the majors last summer, and some concerns about injuries. If his price is low he’s worth the risk.
The Giants added Aubrey Huff and Mark DeRosa, which should squeeze all of Travis Ishikawa’s AB except when he’s needed as a defensive replacement.
My assumption was there was bounceback potential in Khalil Greene’s career path, but as the backup in Texas, at bats are going to be hard to find.
I like Alex Avila’s potential, but I bumped him to $4 and 350 AB in the Guide, and that’s too much too soon. He’s a good buy at $2, for sure, but he’s really a young, untested backup going into this year.
I like Chris Snyder’s power and I like the way he gets on base. Nobody likes his batting average, and that may well relegate him to backup duties in Arizona. If he ends up as a guy who gets 350 AB he’s worth the $4 he’s listed at in the Guide, but in many ways he’s more valuable in NL only leagues as a $1 or reserve round backup.
When I was doing the projections for the Guide Mike Aviles claimed he would be back for opening day in Kansas City. It now looks like he won’t be back until a good while later. If healthy he’s got to be better than Yuniesky Betancourt, even if he’s unlikely to hit the way he did in 2008, so I’ve knocked his AB down some.
Willy Taveras was traded to the Athletics, who released him. He’s now a free agent, and it’s likely wherever he signs he will be the fourth outfielder, which suits a guy with leadoff speed but not leadoff skills. In the Guide I had him down for 400 AB, which now seems a tad high. I also had his bid price at $10, which is probably right for a guy with his speed, but is too high for a guy without a regular job. For less, he could prove a bargain.
I like Emmanual Burriss as a utililty guy in SF. He doesn’t have a lot of bat, but he runs, which could make him a useful MI. But the decisions the Giants have made this winter seem to force Burriss to Fresno to start the year, which might make him a useful reserve pick or waiver pickup.
Carlos Beltran was knocked down to reflect his reduced post-surgical playing time.
I used to think I was the last Jason Kendall supporter, but I’ve long since turned my back on him. Turns out the Royals like him enough to sign him to a two year deal, presumably as their regular catcher, meaning he’ll get more AB than the reserve catcher I had considered him to be.
I’ve got Kyle Blanks down for 250 AB in the Guide, though he appears to be the Padres’ starting left fielder. I’m still concerned about his supposedly healed foot, and his defense, but with a direct line at a regular job I’ve bumped him up to 350 AB. He could get more, and he might hit like he did last summer, but he’s still way risky.
I assumed that John Buck would hang on as a No. 2 catcher, but it looks like he’s instead the Blue Jays starter until JP Arencibia is ready, or his 20th passed ball, whichever comes first.
I have a bad feeling about Rajai Davis. 29 year olds who walk more when they’re having a career year (.366 BABIP) often walk more because they’re going good, not because their fundamental approach has changed. If it weren’t for the burst of doubles last year, I’d be certain Davis was going to revert to the sort of hitter he was in 2008. In the Guide I punished his projection to reflect my sense that he’ll slump and be benched, but 300 AB was too few.
I didn’t really expect Scott Podsednik to end up with a regular job, but it appears he has.
When the Twins signed Orlando Hudson Alexi Casilla’s low stock sunk further.
It seems increasingly clear that Lou Marson will get the majority of AB in Cleveland, at least until he proves he’s unworthy. He isn’t, so I’ve bumped him up a 100 AB. That doesn’t mean you should pay more for him.
Upon reflection and the White Sox’s offseason moves, Juan Pierre deserves some more at bats, and I’ve given them to him.
The Guide is Out!
Sunday, February 7th, 2010 | The Guide | No Comments
The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2010 cover
The 2010 Guide is out there now, available at Barnes and Noble, Walmart, Borders, gas stations, newsstands and who knows where else.
Strategies of Champions 2009: Greg Pizzo, Rotoman’s Regulars League
Tuesday, January 12th, 2010 | Amplification, Strategies of Champions, The Guide | No Comments
Sometimes we run out of space in the magazine. That happened this year with a redesign of the Strategies of Champions section. The result was more white space, good for the eye, but I assigned one story too many.
Fortunately, in today’s digital world, that story can appear here and find even more readers than the stories in the magazine. Greg deserves all the credit in the world. A 20 team league of bandits, pirates and fanatics, the Regs league is a knife fight.
Way to go, Greg! Read his story here.
Missing Pitchers
Sunday, February 8th, 2009 | Amplification, The Fantasy Baseball Blog | No Comments
I was doing some work on my projections and discovered three pitchers missing from the Guide who, in a perfect world, would be in there.
John Smoltz isn’t in the Guide, and it is plausible that I was so sure that he was going to retire that I dropped him. He instead signed with the Red Sox. He only pitched in six games last year and is coming back from shoulder surgery. He isn’t expected to be ready until June or so, but given his injury history and age there is some chance he won’t be back. If he is healthy enough to pitch he’ll give the Sox a midseason lift, either in the rotation or out of the pen.
Salomon Torres isn’t in the Guide because he said he was retiring, but then the Brewers exercised their option. So there is some chance he could come back, but he says he’s retired.
Tim Hudson had the TJ last August and by all rights should miss all of 2009. He says he’ll be back in August, which would be a pretty quick recovery. Don’t count on effectiveness if he does get back.
Tad Iguchi Not
Thursday, January 29th, 2009 | Amplification, Correction, The Fantasy Baseball Blog | No Comments
He’s profiled and projected in the Guide, but he decided to go play full time in Japan rather than work as a backup in the states. I think he went from Regular to Has Been awfully quickly, like maybe all it took was a slump, which he might have recovered from. Or maybe he really wasn’t able to pull it off, after succeeding for a while.
This is relevant because Kosuke Fukudome is considered meat for 2009, though his record isn’t as bad as he looked last summer. Kaz Matsui bounced back from adversity (with a load of sunk costs paving the way), so maybe Fukudome will, too. But the record, thus far, indicates that Japanese players are on a short leash.
I’m a Putz!
Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 | Correction, The Fantasy Baseball Blog | No Comments
Well, sort of. JJ Putz was traded to the Mets, where he won’t be a closer, just as we closed the magazine. In the Profiles section I dropped his price to $8, because if something were to happen to K-Rod he could get some saves. When we get closer to opening day that price could drop to $5, or bounce back to $19, which is what I had him priced at before the trade.
Unfortunately, in the Draft at a Glance section he’s sorted in the $8 group, but the price next to his name is still $19. That’s a mistake.
2008 Mock Draft Results
Thursday, January 15th, 2009 | Data, The Fantasy Baseball Blog | No Comments
Each year there are so many mock drafts, and so few final results shown. There are good reasons to ignore the results. For instance, we draft the mock in mid November. But there are good reasons to show the results, too. We all draft at the same time. The winner of the 2008 Creative Sports Mock Draft in the Fantasy Baseball Guide 2008 was Todd Zola.
Todd, it should be noted, is moving this year from fantasybaseball.com to mastersball.com. You should check out the champion’s always excellent work. Unfortunately he wasn’t given full credit in this year’s Guide for his Picks and Pans, which was my fault.
If you would like to see the actual standings and rosters from the 2008 Mock, check out this handy Google Spreadsheet Todd created. Thanks Todd.
2008 Profit/Loss Statements
Thursday, January 15th, 2009 | Data, The Fantasy Baseball Blog | No Comments
Pitchers can be found in a Google Spreadsheet.
Hitters can be found in a different Google Spreadsheet.
These sheets show what players cost in 2008, what they earned, and their profit and loss.
The pricing for cost and earnings aren’t exactly congruent, so a small difference doesn’t really mean anything, but these lists are intended to identify the biggest surprises of 2008.
Billy Wagner Has a Price!
Thursday, January 15th, 2009 | Correction, The Fantasy Baseball Blog | No Comments
For some reason Billy Wagner didn’t get a Cost or and Earned for 2008 in the Guide. He got N/A# for both.
He cost $23. He earned $17. He lost $6.